No to Nationalised Party Rule

Perceptions about the ruling AIADMK as having become weaker and the DMK as one not being able to revive its fortunes dramatically in the last one year have triggered a debate whether there is scope for any national party to become a principal player again.

This may look ironical, in the light of repeated failed attempts by national parties in the last 40 years or so to emerge as strong organisations electorally. After the death of former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa in December 2016, the BJP, sensing the potential for itself under the given circumstances, has been taking steps to become more and more visible.

It is in this context that the recent observation of the senior AIADMK leader and Lok Sabha Deputy Speaker M. Thambi Durai that national parties could only compete with NOTA (None of the Above) has to be viewed. Apparently, he had in mind the performance of the BJP in the recent byelection to the Dr. Radhakrishnan Nagar Assembly constituency, where the national party could net 1,417 votes, whereas NOTA obtained 2,373.

Few exceptions

Since 1977 when the AIADMK became a principal party along with the DMK, all the national parties had aligned with either of the Dravidian parties or smaller outfits when they looked for representation in the Assembly.

There were a few exceptions to this rule. In the 1977 Assembly polls, the Congress and the Janata party, both national parties, went alone and had secured 27 seats and 10 seats with vote share of 17.5% and 16.67% respectively.

While the Congress repeated it 12 years later when it got 26 seats with 19.83%, the Janata had disappeared from the political scene in no time. After the 1989 Assembly polls, the Congress never faced people in an Assembly election on its own and instead entered into understanding with the DMK or the AIADMK in the last 30 years.

In 1996, the BJP won one seat on its own — Padmanabhapuram in the communally-sensitive Kanniyakumari district. But, it could not repeat even this in the last three Assembly elections (2006, 2011 and 2016), when the party contested the polls on its own. The CPI and the CPI (M), both put together, could secure 1.5% of votes in the 2016 Assembly elections, when they went to the electorate without the support of the two leading Dravidian parties for the first time after a long gap.

‘Soil of Periyar’

The exceptions apart, DMK’s organising secretary and Member of Parliament (Rajya Sabha), R.S. Bharathi, says, “This (Tamil Nadu) is the soil of Periyar [Dravida Kazhagam founder E.V. Ramasami] and Anna [DMK’s founder C.N. Annadurai]” where factors of language and culture play a strong role. No national party can succeed here as there is no possibility. Also, there may be “vacuum” in the AIADMK, but there is no issue with his party, adds Mr. Bharathi.

But, former Minister and the ruling AIADMK’s spokesperson, B. Valarmathi, does not agree with the MP’s assessment about her party. “While we miss Amma [Jayalalithaa] very much, the party and the government are functioning very well,” she says. However, she is guarded on the question of larger role for a national party in the State. “It is for the people to decide,” she says.

‘Fissiparous tendencies’

On the space for the national parties, A.Gopanna, Congress spokesperson, and K.S. Narendran, general secretary of the BJP’s State unit, acknowledge that these parties have “failed in countering effectively” the campaign of “fissiparous tendencies” that Tamil Nadu is “being systematically ignored” by the Centre. Both are also emphatic in saying that much more requires to be done and the situation can be redeemed only through a “sustained, intensive political work.”

As for the R.K. Nagar bypoll, Mr Narendran feels that if one were to go only by its outcome, the AIADMK and the DMK should be more concerned than any other party. The ruling party had tasted defeat in one of its traditional strongholds and the DMK had forfeited its deposit, he points out.

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